Favourites Fall Early – Germany and the Dutch Are Out

First Germany fall to Paraguay on penalties, then the Netherlands are beaten by Morocco just a few hours later. The new Round of 32 immediately delivers what it promised: drama, surprises and big names going home much earlier than expected.

Paraguay are overjoyed, Germany are out. One of the biggest upsets of this World Cup knockout round is sealed.

That is how quickly a tournament can turn. Just a few days ago, Germany were group winners, had won two matches and could go into the knockout stage with confidence despite the defeat against Ecuador. Now the DFB team are out of the World Cup. 1–1 after 120 minutes against Paraguay, 3–4 on penalties – and another major German tournament drama.

For long spells, Germany had almost everything except the decisive edge. Lots of possession, lots of passes, plenty of control on paper – but too little pace, too little surprise and too little real threat. Paraguay defended deep, patiently and uncomfortably. Then one attack was enough: Julio Enciso headed in shortly before half-time to make it 1–0, scoring Paraguay’s first-ever goal in a World Cup knockout match.

Kai Havertz brought Germany back after the break, also with a header. And when Jonathan Tah appeared to make it 2–1 in extra time, it briefly looked like relief for Germany. But the goal was ruled out after a VAR review. It was a bitter moment and one that will be discussed for some time – but it does not explain everything. Germany had 120 minutes to beat Paraguay. In the end, the penalty shootout had to decide it.

And exactly there, where Germany had looked almost untouchable at World Cups for decades, everything went wrong. Havertz, Nick Woltemade and Tah all failed from the spot. Manuel Neuer saved one attempt, another Paraguayan penalty missed the target, but José Canale converted the decisive kick. Paraguay celebrated, Germany stood stunned. It was Germany’s first-ever defeat in a World Cup penalty shootout.

That brings Germany’s tournament to an earlier end than expected – and once again leaves a bitter feeling. After group-stage exits in 2018 and 2022, reaching the knockout stage was at least a step forward. But going out against Paraguay in the Round of 32 is still not enough for a German team. Head coach Julian Nagelsmann is now under pressure, even though he ruled out resigning after the match. Manuel Neuer, meanwhile, said in a Sportschau interview that it had been his final international appearance.

And Germany were not alone that evening. Soon afterwards, the Netherlands were out as well. Oranje led against Morocco through Cody Gakpo, but Issa Diop headed Morocco into extra time in stoppage time. This match also went to penalties. Morocco held their nerve, won 3–2 and will now face Canada. For the Netherlands, another dramatic night ended in elimination.

Two penalty shootouts, two European heavyweights out: the new knockout round has made its impact immediately. In the group stage, there was still room for calculations. Now there are no second chances. One VAR intervention, one late header, one saved penalty – and an entire tournament is over.

For the ProXES betting competition, this means determination matters from now on. It is not the big name that decides, but the next moment. Anyone who wants to stay ahead or still make a move has to make every prediction with focus and stay switched on until the final minute. Paraguay and Morocco have shown how quickly everything can change.